International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) could see improved stock performance following clarity from the Italian lottery RFP, despite losing a third of its value over the past year.

Italy's gaming regulator recently published RFP documents that Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial describes as "modestly favorable" for IGT. Stantial maintains a "buy" rating with a $26 price target, suggesting over 50% potential upside.

The Italian lottery contract, managed through a joint venture with Allwyn, significantly contributes to IGT's financial performance:

• Generates €477M in consolidated revenues
• Produces €386M in adjusted EBITDA
• Represents ~30% of Global Lottery revenues
• Accounts for ~20% of adjusted EBITDA
• Comprises ~30% of IGT's pro-rata RemainCo adjusted EBITDA (IGT holds 61.5% economics)

While IGT has operated Italy's lottery for over 30 years, Flutter Entertainment (NYSE: FLUT) emerges as a strong competitor, leveraging its existing Italian presence through:

• Pending acquisition of Playtech's Snaitech
• $2.2 billion Sisal acquisition in 2022
• Established PokerStars and Betfair operations

IGT maintains several competitive advantages:

• Incumbent operator status
• Extensive lottery operation experience
• Technical ownership
• Favorable RFP scoring matrix (50/50 split between price and technical aspects)
• Short submission deadline (March 17) potentially benefiting the incumbent

The Italian market represents Europe's largest wagering market outside the UK and the Eurozone's third-largest economy, making this contract particularly valuable for gaming operators.

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